The odds of asteroid 2024 YR4 colliding with Earth have surged, reaching a historic probability threshold that has raised concerns among scientists and global space agencies. According to NASA’s Center for Near Earth Object Studies (CNEOS), the asteroid now has a 1 in 32 (3.1%) chance of impact, a sharp increase from earlier predictions.
Initially discovered in December 2024, its impact probability was 1.2% (1 in 83) before doubling to 2.3% on February 7, then rising to 2.6% earlier this week, and now hitting its highest recorded figure. These odds make 2024 YR4 the most dangerous asteroid currently tracked, surpassing even the 2004 predictions for Apophis, which had a 2.7% chance of striking Earth before later calculations ruled it out.
“This is a historic milestone,” said Richard Moissl, head of the European Space Agency’s (ESA) planetary defense office, though ESA estimates the probability slightly lower at 2.8%.
Lagos at Risk if Asteroid Strikes
Measuring between 131 and 295 feet in diameter, YR4 is large enough to generate an 8-megaton explosion, equivalent to 500 times the power of the Hiroshima atomic bomb.
Among the major cities in the asteroid’s projected trajectory is Lagos, Nigeria, one of the world’s most densely populated urban centers. With over 20 million residents, an impact on Lagos Island, Ikeja, or Victoria Island could result in catastrophic destruction, wiping out entire districts and severely affecting surrounding areas.
“If you put it over Lagos, the impact would devastate the city, destroying infrastructure and displacing millions,” warned Bruce Betts, chief scientist at the nonprofit Planetary Society.
No Immediate Cause for Panic—Yet
Despite the alarming statistics, scientists urge the public not to panic.
“I’m not panicking,” Betts stated, adding that while the increasing odds are unsettling, similar asteroid threats in the past have ultimately been ruled out. Moissl also reassured that YR4 is not a ‘planet killer’ but could pose a major threat to any city in its path.
Experts predict that the impact probability may continue to rise before eventually dropping to zero, as has been the case with many previously tracked asteroids.
To refine the risk assessment, NASA and the ESA will deploy the James Webb Space Telescope, using its infrared instruments to accurately measure the asteroid’s size and determine its exact trajectory.
The ESA confirmed that NASA, ESA, and other space agencies will analyze this data to assess the risk and prepare any necessary response measures.
