The Business Bureau: Nigeria News Today – Economy Grows 4.07% in Q4 2025 as Oil, Non-Oil Sectors Strengthen
By Queen Madaki
Nigeria’s economy expanded by 4.07 per cent year-on-year in real terms in the fourth quarter (Q4) of 2025, according to the latest Gross Domestic Product (GDP) report released by the National Bureau of Statistics (NBS).
The latest data, monitored by The Business Bureau as part of Nigeria News Today, shows a notable improvement from the 3.76 per cent recorded in Q4 2024, reflecting stronger year-end momentum across major productive sectors.
The Business Bureau Analysis: What the Q4 2025 GDP Data Shows
The NBS report reveals broad-based expansion across agriculture, industry, oil, and services.
- Real GDP growth: 4.07% (Q4 2025) vs 3.76% (Q4 2024)
- Full-year growth: 3.87% in 2025 vs 3.38% in 2024
- Agriculture: 4.00% growth
- Industry: 3.88% growth
- Services: 4.15% growth
- Nominal GDP: N122.81 trillion (up 17.55% from N104.48 trillion)
The services sector retained its dominant position, accounting for 55.92 per cent of total GDP in the quarter.
Average daily crude oil production stood at 1.58 million barrels per day, higher than 1.54 mbpd in Q4 2024 but below 1.64 mbpd recorded in Q3 2025.
Overall, the figures suggest steady year-on-year improvement despite quarter-on-quarter fluctuations.
Oil Sector Performance: Strong Annual Growth, Quarterly Contraction
The oil sector recorded real growth of 6.79 per cent year-on-year in Q4 2025, compared to 2.08 per cent in Q4 2024.
However, on a quarter-on-quarter basis, the sector contracted by 6.30 per cent.
For the full year, oil sector growth reached 8.50 per cent, exceeding the 5.54 per cent posted in 2024.
The oil sector contributed 2.87 per cent to total real GDP in Q4 2025, slightly above 2.80 per cent in Q4 2024 but lower than 3.44 per cent in Q3 2025.
In aggregate terms, oil accounted for 3.53 per cent of GDP in 2025, compared to 3.38 per cent in 2024.
Non-Oil Sector Anchors Nigeria’s Growth Momentum
The non-oil sector remained the backbone of economic activity, growing by 3.99 per cent in real terms in Q4 2025.
Key growth drivers included:
- Crop production
- Telecommunications
- Financial institutions
- Trade and real estate
- Construction
- Road transport
- Food, beverage and tobacco manufacturing
In real terms, the non-oil sector contributed 97.13 per cent of GDP in Q4 2025 and 96.47 per cent for the full year, reinforcing its structural dominance in Nigeria’s economy.
Nigeria News Today: IMF and World Bank Growth Outlook
Global financial institutions have expressed cautious optimism about Nigeria’s medium-term growth trajectory.
According to the International Monetary Fund (IMF), Nigeria’s economy is projected to grow by 3.9 per cent in 2025 and 4.2 per cent in 2026.
The World Bank has maintained a 4.4 per cent growth forecast for Nigeria in 2027 and upgraded its 2026 projection to 4.4 per cent from 3.7 per cent.
These forecasts indicate sustained expansion prospects, even as structural reforms and macroeconomic adjustments continue to shape the business environment.
The Business Bureau Insight: Nigeria’s Q4 2025 performance reflects strengthening sectoral diversification, with non-oil industries increasingly stabilizing growth dynamics.
For investors, policymakers, and corporate strategists, the Q4 data signals improving macroeconomic stability heading into 2026.
