Kaduna, Nigeria – May 14, 2025
Former Kaduna State Governor, Nasir El-Rufai, appears to be at a political impasse, following the failure of his defection to the Social Democratic Party (SDP) to spark momentum in Nigeria’s politically influential North-West region.
El-Rufai formally dumped the All Progressives Congress (APC) on March 10, 2025, citing a “widening gap between his values and the direction of the party.” The former FCT Minister had pledged to unite Nigeria’s opposition under a single banner to challenge the ruling APC in the 2027 elections. However, that vision is now faltering.
SDP Structure Nonexistent in North-West
Two months into his defection, there is little sign of traction for El-Rufai’s political movement. Investigations reveal that the SDP lacks functional structures in all seven North-Western states — Kaduna, Kano, Katsina, Jigawa, Kebbi, Sokoto, and Zamfara — raising serious doubts about the viability of his strategy.
Sources close to the former governor told The Bureau that despite multiple private meetings and extensive lobbying, El-Rufai has failed to persuade any sitting governors, senators, or even state assembly members to join his cause.
One insider revealed that the former governor approached influential politicians such as Senators Adamu Aliero, Yahaya Abdullahi, and Garba Maidoki in Kebbi State — all of whom rejected his offer and instead reaffirmed allegiance to the APC.
Efforts to court the Nasarawa State Governor also reportedly failed, underscoring the growing isolation El-Rufai now faces.
Suspicion Over Intentions and SDP’s Legacy
Analysts say El-Rufai’s SDP project is viewed with suspicion. The party’s historical connection to President Bola Tinubu, who won his 1992 senatorial seat on the SDP platform, is believed to be casting a shadow over El-Rufai’s credibility.
“There’s a lingering suspicion that El-Rufai’s defection may be a tactical move rather than a genuine shift,” said a political source in Kaduna. “Many believe he’s still working covertly for Tinubu or trying to fracture the opposition.”
This mistrust, paired with El-Rufai’s polarizing image from his support for the Muslim-Muslim ticket in 2023, has left him struggling to rebuild trust among southern Christians and opposition stakeholders nationwide.
Atiku-Abubakar Meeting Ends in Deadlock
In a recent twist, El-Rufai reportedly held a meeting with former Vice President Atiku Abubakar, where Atiku urged him to return to the Peoples Democratic Party (PDP).
El-Rufai, however, declined, instead calling on Atiku to join him in the SDP. He argued that the PDP was plagued with internal conflicts, particularly pointing fingers at FCT Minister Nyesom Wike, whom he accused of sabotaging the party from within.
With both camps refusing to concede, the meeting ended without resolution, leaving El-Rufai politically stranded between a weakened opposition and a ruling party he no longer trusts.
A Lonely Campaign and a Comedic Ally
The only notable public figure to publicly align with El-Rufai’s movement so far is comedian Obinna “MC Tagwaye” Simon, known for impersonating former President Muhammadu Buhari. While his social media fame is well recognized, his influence in political circles is negligible.
“Convincing a comedian is not the same as winning over politicians. That’s a clear sign of political isolation,” a political analyst told The Bureau.
From Powerbroker to Political Outcast?
El-Rufai was once a kingmaker in the APC alliance that brought Buhari to power in 2015. He was a vocal supporter of President Tinubu’s candidacy in 2023, yet his ministerial nomination was later stalled by the Senate, reportedly due to a security report from the DSS.
That perceived betrayal marked the beginning of his fallout with the ruling party, further fueled by his controversial religious rhetoric, which alienated key southern and Christian constituencies.
“El-Rufai has burned bridges in the APC, and now he’s finding no new bridges in the SDP,” noted Adamu Maiyama, an APC stalwart in Kebbi State. “His image is too divisive. The North is cautious. The South is skeptical.”
Uncertain Road Ahead
With no established political base outside his Kaduna stronghold and no major allies within the SDP, El-Rufai’s options appear increasingly limited. Returning to the PDP would require humility and the rebuilding of old alliances. Sticking with the SDP, however, may further diminish his relevance before 2027.
For now, the former governor remains caught in a dilemma — unable to rally a movement, yet unwilling to return to the parties he once denounced. As political calculations intensify ahead of the next election cycle, Nasir El-Rufai’s gamble may well go down as a cautionary tale in Nigerian politics.
