Nigeria News Today: Headline Inflation Falls to 15.10% in January 2026 — The Business Bureau Analysis
By The Business Bureau
Nigeria’s headline inflation rate moderated slightly to 15.10% in January 2026, down from 15.15% recorded in December 2025, according to the latest Consumer Price Index (CPI) report released by the National Bureau of Statistics (NBS).
The marginal decline of 0.05 percentage points signals a continued slowdown in price pressures at the start of the year, reinforcing ongoing disinflation trends closely monitored across Nigeria News Today.
Nigeria News Today: What the NBS Data Shows
On a year-on-year basis, inflation dropped sharply compared to January 2025. The January 2026 rate of 15.10% is 12.51 percentage points lower than the 27.61% recorded in the same period last year.
Month-on-month inflation contracted significantly, falling to –2.88% in January 2026 compared to 0.54% in December 2025. This represents a 3.42 percentage point decline and indicates that the general price level fell relative to December.
However, the broader twelve-month average inflation remains elevated. The percentage change in the average CPI for the twelve months ending January 2026 stood at 21.97%, compared to 17.59% in January 2025, reflecting persistent underlying price pressures.
Food Inflation Provides Major Relief
Food inflation — the largest component of household expenditure — recorded the most significant decline.
- Year-on-year food inflation: 8.89% (down from 29.63% in January 2025)
- Month-on-month food inflation: –6.02% (from –0.36% in December 2025)
- 12-month average food inflation: 20.29% (down from 38.47%)
The NBS attributed the easing to lower prices of staples including water yam, eggs, green peas, groundnut oil, soya beans, palm oil, maize, guinea corn, beans, beef, melon (egusi), cassava, and cowpeas.
For deeper inflation data, visit the National Bureau of Statistics.
Core Inflation and Urban-Rural Breakdown
Core inflation, which excludes volatile agricultural produce and energy prices, stood at 17.72% year-on-year, down from 25.27% recorded in January 2025.
- Core inflation (MoM): –1.69%
- 12-month average core inflation: 22.84%
Urban inflation stood at 15.36% year-on-year, while rural inflation was slightly lower at 14.44%, both reflecting notable declines from 2025 levels.
What This Means for Monetary Policy
The January inflation outcome defied several analyst projections, which had anticipated inflation could edge slightly higher within a 15.15%–16.25% range.
The data comes ahead of the Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN) Monetary Policy Committee deliberations, where inflation trends, liquidity conditions, and exchange rate stability remain key considerations.
As covered consistently by The Business Bureau, sustained moderation in food prices and improved supply conditions could strengthen arguments for cautious policy recalibration, though twelve-month averages suggest inflationary pressures are not yet fully subdued.
For more updates on Nigeria News Today, economic data releases, and monetary policy developments, stay with The Business Bureau.
