Lagos, Nigeria – After a brief decline during the Christmas and New Year celebrations, rice prices in Nigeria have surged again, sparking concerns over food security and inflation. The price of a 50kg bag of imported Indian short grain rice, which fell to between N65,000 and N67,000 in December 2024, has now risen sharply to N75,000, with traders predicting further hikes.
Rice Prices on the Rise Again
A market survey shows that both imported and locally produced rice have been affected by the latest price surge:
- Imported Indian Short Grain Rice – N90,000 (December 2024) → N65,000 – N67,000 (January 2025) → N75,000 (February 2025)
- Imported Thai Grain Rice – N100,000 (December 2024) → N88,000 – N89,000 (January 2025) → N92,000 – N105,000 (February 2025)
- Bull Rice (Local) – N85,000 → N90,000
- Abakaliki Rice – N85,000 → N90,000
The surge in rice prices has been attributed to rising production costs, forex fluctuations, insecurity, and government policies.
Why Rice Prices Crashed Briefly in December 2024 and January 2025
During the festive season, rice prices experienced a temporary decline due to:
- Naira Appreciation – The exchange rate improved from N1,600/$1 to N1,475/$1, making imports slightly cheaper.
- Better Border Conditions – Smuggling and land border regulations were relaxed, allowing easier rice importation.
However, these factors were short-lived, and by February 2025, prices surged again due to structural issues in Nigeria’s agricultural sector.
Production Decline and Soaring Costs
According to the United States Department of Agriculture (USDA), Nigeria’s rice production dropped from 5.61 million metric tons in the 2023/2024 season to 5.23 million metric tons in 2024/2025, a decline of between 15% and 23%, making it the lowest production level since the COVID-19 pandemic in 2020.
Key factors behind the decline include:
- Insecurity – Banditry and herder-farmer clashes in key rice-producing states such as Benue, Kebbi, Nasarawa, and Niger have forced farmers to abandon their fields.
- Rising Input Costs – Fertilizer, seeds, pesticides, and labor costs have skyrocketed, making farming less profitable.
- Government Policy Shift – The Anchor Borrowers’ Programme, which provided credit to rice farmers, was suspended due to loan repayment defaults, worsening production challenges.
Millers also report a 10% increase in paddy rice costs, with prices now between N70,000 and N80,000 per 80kg bag.
Exchange Rate Volatility Worsens Import Costs
Nigeria’s heavy dependence on imported rice has also contributed to price hikes, as importers struggle with:
- Unstable Forex Rates – Importers are unable to predict costs due to fluctuating exchange rates.
- Customs Duties Tied to Forex – Import tariffs rise with exchange rate volatility, increasing importation costs.
- Supply Chain Disruptions – Global rice prices have also risen due to climate change affecting major producers like India, Thailand, and Vietnam.
Chiwendu Chikwere, a rice wholesaler in Lagos, lamented that unpredictable forex rates make it difficult for traders to plan:
“Importers are in limbo regarding the exchange rate. Most times, you don’t know how much the exchange rate will be when importing. So, prices keep rising unpredictably.”
Expert Warns of Impending Food Crisis
Agricultural consultant, Muhammadu Sanusi, has warned that Nigeria is heading toward a food crisis if urgent steps are not taken to boost local production.
Key warnings from Sanusi:
- Rice prices will continue to rise unless security improves and farmers regain access to farmlands.
- The cost of farming inputs and energy must be reduced to stabilize production costs.
- Importation is not a viable solution due to Nigeria’s large population and forex challenges.
“Importation cannot meet our demands in Nigeria due to our population. Investment in primary production remains the surest way to drop prices,” Sanusi stated.
Forecast: Local Rice Prices Expected to Rise by 55% in 2025
A report by Afex Wet Season Crop Production 2024 has projected that the price of locally-produced paddy rice could increase by 55% in the 2024/2025 season, worsening Nigeria’s cost-of-living crisis.
Key findings from the report:
- Rice prices increased 78% in 2024, with the average price hitting N630,000/MT.
- If production continues to decline, the cost of a 50kg bag could exceed N120,000 by the end of 2025.
Way Forward: What Needs to Be Done
To stabilize rice prices and prevent a full-scale food crisis, experts recommend:
- Improving Security – Farmers must have safe access to their lands.
- Reintroducing Farmer Support Programs – The government should revive and reform the Anchor Borrowers’ Programme to ensure proper loan repayments.
- Encouraging Large-Scale Mechanized Farming – Nigeria must shift from subsistence farming to large-scale mechanized agriculture.
- Reducing Import Dependence – Strengthening local production will reduce reliance on expensive foreign rice.
- Forex Stabilization Policies – The government should implement forex management strategies to ease import costs.
Final Thoughts: The Battle for Affordable Rice
Rice is a staple food in every Nigerian household, and its rising cost is pushing more families into food insecurity. While short-term measures like forex stabilization and border policies can temporarily reduce prices, long-term solutions must focus on boosting local production, securing farmlands, and reducing input costs.
Unless urgent action is taken, Nigerians could face an even worse food crisis in 2025, with rice prices hitting record highs and pushing inflation further.
Would you like a market analysis of the major rice-producing states and how they are affected by current policies?