Food Prices Drop During Ramadan for the First Time in a Decade – The Tinubu Effect?
For the first time in over ten years, Nigeria has recorded a drop in food prices during Ramadan, a period that has historically seen sharp increases in the cost of staple goods. This decline comes at an unusual time, as both Ramadan and Lent are being observed simultaneously—an occurrence that should have led to higher demand and price hikes. Yet, the opposite is happening.
Analysts attribute this shift to what is being called “The Tinubu Effect”, a result of the Office of the National Security Adviser (ONSA) extending its focus beyond traditional security concerns to critical economic areas such as food security, fuel security, and power stability.
Strategic Interventions by the ONSA
For the first time, Nigeria’s national security strategy is addressing economic vulnerabilities alongside physical security threats. Some of the key measures implemented include:
- Border Control on Staple Goods: The ONSA has halted the outflow of essential food items to neighboring countries, ensuring that local markets are well supplied.
- Protection of Farming Communities: Farmers who previously faced threats from banditry and insurgency are now operating under enhanced security, leading to improved food production.
- Supply Chain Monitoring: Agricultural produce is being closely tracked to ensure it reaches Nigerian markets rather than being smuggled out.
- Fuel Smuggling Crackdown: The ONSA led the closure of over 1,800 fuel stations involved in illegal fuel exports last year, curbing shortages and stabilizing local fuel prices.
- Irrigation as a National Security Priority: Water distribution for irrigation is now being treated as a security issue, ensuring year-round farming instead of seasonal shortages.
Impact on Nigeria’s Economy and Security
These interventions have led to measurable improvements, not just in food prices but also in Nigeria’s overall security outlook. The country’s Global Terror Index (GTI) score has improved from 8.065 in 2023 to 7.575 in 2025, its best ranking in over eight years.
This integrated approach—combining physical security with economic stability—is now reshaping Nigeria’s security and economic landscape.
Reno Omokri on the Tinubu Effect
Reno Omokri, a well-known commentator, highlighted this transformation, stating:
“Every year for the last ten years, food prices have consistently increased in Nigeria at the start of Ramadan. 2025 is the first time since records have been kept that food prices have actually reduced during Ramadan.
And the amazing thing is that this year, both Ramadan and the Christian fasting season of Lent are occurring simultaneously. This should ordinarily have put more pressure on food prices. But we are seeing the opposite happening. Why? This is the Tinubu Effect occasioned by the Office of the National Security Adviser’s capable management of Nigeria’s food security.”
Omokri further elaborated on how the ONSA has expanded its role beyond conventional security to include food security, fuel security, and other strategic economic areas.
“For the first time, Nigeria now has an NSA who is not just focused on physical security, which has seen Nigeria’s Global Terror Index score improve from 8.065 in 2023 to 7.575—our best score in over eight years.
The ONSA is also focused on food security and other aspects of security, such as fuel and power security. In furtherance of this, the ONSA has stopped the practice of staple goods leaving Nigeria for neighbouring countries during festive seasons while providing physical security for farming communities whose operations were once hampered by insecurity.”
Omokri also pointed out the strict monitoring of farm produce, livestock, and water resources, ensuring that these essentials are managed as national security priorities. He emphasized that fuel smuggling has been significantly reduced, which has contributed to lower fuel prices and better economic stability.
Shifting the Narrative: A Turning Point for Nigeria?
For years, Nigerians have braced themselves for rising food prices during Ramadan. However, 2025 has rewritten that narrative. Instead of inflation, there is now a reduction in the cost of essential goods.
The question remains—is this a one-time occurrence, or is Nigeria witnessing the start of a long-term economic transformation?
Regardless of the answer, the Tinubu Effect is being felt, and Nigerians are taking notice.