Abuja, Nigeria – Following the recent surge in petrol prices and ongoing food supply challenges, economists are raising alarms that the number of Nigerians living below the poverty line could soon exceed the World Bank’s 2023 projection of 104 million.
In its December 2023 Nigeria development update, titled “Turning the Corner: From Reforms & Renewed Hope, to Results,” the World Bank reported that Nigeria’s poverty rate had risen from 40 percent in 2018 to 46 percent in 2023, resulting in an increase from 79 million to 104 million people living in poverty. The report highlighted that sluggish economic growth and rising inflation were the primary factors pushing an additional 24 million Nigerians below the national poverty line.
The report also noted that the urban poor, who are more vulnerable to inflation, saw their numbers rise from 13 million to 20 million, while the rural poor population increased from 67 million to 84 million within the same period.
Despite the World Bank’s prediction that economic reforms initiated by President Bola Tinubu could reverse the trend between 2024 and 2026, experts are concerned that recent policy decisions, particularly the fuel price increase, could exacerbate poverty levels beyond the World Bank’s estimates.
Speaking with Saturday PUNCH on Thursday, Professor Taiwo Owoeye, a Development Economics expert from Ekiti State University, warned that the 45 percent hike in fuel prices would lead to a significant increase in transportation costs and, consequently, the prices of essential commodities, worsening the inflationary pressures faced by the poor.
“With this kind of fuel price hike, which has a ripple effect on every sector of the economy, it’s inevitable that more Nigerians will fall below the poverty line,” Owoeye said. He further noted that the stagnation of workers’ salaries, especially in states yet to implement the N70,000 minimum wage, would further exacerbate the situation.
Similarly, Dr. Tobi Awolope, an agricultural economist from the Centre for Agricultural Development and Sustainable Environment at the Federal University of Agriculture, Abeokuta, expressed concerns that the fuel price hike would worsen the already dire food crisis affecting poor Nigerians.
“The recent fuel price hike, coupled with irregular rainfall patterns and the impacts of climate change, is likely to push the number of poor Nigerians beyond 100 million,” Awolope explained.
As Nigeria grapples with these economic challenges, the outlook for millions of citizens remains bleak, with experts warning that urgent policy interventions are needed to prevent further deterioration in living standards.