The Palestinian militant group, Hamas, is set to name a new political leader from outside Gaza, following the death of Yahya Sinwar, who was killed in a gunfight with Israeli forces on Wednesday.
Sinwar, known for orchestrating the October 7, 2023, attack that escalated the ongoing Gaza conflict, had previously unified Hamas’s military and political leadership.
However, experts suggest that the group’s next leader is likely to be based outside of Gaza, while Sinwar’s brother, Mohammad Sinwar, is expected to take on a more prominent role in directing the conflict against Israel.
Hamas’s leadership deliberations will involve balancing the interests of its primary backer, Iran, with those of Qatar, where many of the main candidates for the politburo chief reside.
The organisation faces the challenge of maintaining cohesion and strategy in the wake of Sinwar’s death, which marks the second loss of a top leader in recent months, following the assassination of former chief Ismail Haniyeh in July, also attributed to Israeli actions.
Reuters reports that after over a year of intense Israeli military operations that have significantly weakened Hamas—killing thousands of its fighters and eliminating key leaders both in and outside of Gaza—there is uncertainty about the group’s future.
Khalil Al-Hayya, the deputy to Hamas leader Yahya Sinwar, who is seen as a potential successor, expressed defiance on Friday, stating that Israeli hostages would not be released until Israeli troops withdrew from Gaza and the war came to an end.
Hamas has a track record of rapidly replacing its fallen leaders, with its Shura Council responsible for appointing a new head.
The council includes representatives from Hamas members in Gaza, the West Bank, Israeli prisons, and the Palestinian diaspora, allowing the new leader to engage in ceasefire negotiations even if they are not physically present in Gaza, where Hamas militants still hold numerous Israeli hostages.
In addition to Hayya, key contenders for leadership include Khaled Meshaal, a former leader, and Mohammad Darwish, who chairs the Shura Council, according to analysts and Hamas insiders. Any leadership decision will need to be communicated to Qatar, which has been instrumental in previous, albeit unsuccessful, ceasefire negotiations, as well as to other regional capitals.
Ashraf Abouelhoul, a Palestinian affairs expert, anticipates that Sinwar’s responsibilities will be divided between two positions: one focusing on military operations and the other handling political affairs, including international relations and policy-making.
He noted that Iran, as Hamas’s primary ally providing financial and military support, will play a critical role in determining Sinwar’s successor.
Abouelhoul expects Hamas to maintain its fundamental demands in upcoming ceasefire negotiations, particularly regarding the withdrawal of Israeli forces from Gaza and the cessation of hostilities.
However, he believes there may be more flexibility on conditions related to the exchange of Israeli hostages for Palestinians detained by Israel.
Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu has characterized Sinwar’s death as a significant milestone but insists that the conflict is ongoing, stating that military actions will persist until the hostages are freed.
Founded in 1987, Hamas is an offshoot of the Sunni Islamist Muslim Brotherhood, and its decision-making process typically involves consensus among its institutions. With Sinwar’s death, leadership in Gaza has temporarily shifted to his deputy, Hayya, who is based in Qatar.
However, ongoing warfare and communication challenges may restrict Hayya’s direct engagement with ground forces, leaving the armed wing, the Qassam Brigades, with substantial influence, experts suggest.
A Hamas source indicated that Hayya is expected to face no issues in functioning as the “de facto leader of Gaza,” citing his solid relationships with both the military wing and the previous leaders, Sinwar and Ismail Haniyeh.
Palestinian political analyst, Akram Attallah, believes the armed wing will respect Hayya’s authority, even from a distance, and anticipates that Mohammad Sinwar will gain prominence within both the armed wing and Hamas overall. Mohammad Sinwar, a veteran Qassam Brigades commander, is on Israel’s most-wanted list and has survived multiple assassination attempts.
Hamas’s attack on October 7 resulted in the deaths of 1,200 people and the abduction of 250 others, according to Israeli figures.
In response, Israel launched an offensive that, per Palestinian authorities, has claimed over 42,000 Palestinian lives, devastated Gaza, and displaced nearly its entire population.