Abuja, Nigeria – The Dangote Refinery has fallen short of its commitment to meet the Nigerian market’s daily petrol supply targets, according to official data from the Nigerian Midstream and Downstream Petroleum Regulatory Authority (NMDPRA).
Between 15 September and 5 October, the refinery delivered 148 million litres of petrol, far below the expected 575 million litres. The Dangote Evacuation Report reveals that the refinery, initially tasked by the federal government to supply 25 million litres of petrol per day in September and ramp up to 35 million litres per day by October, has consistently underperformed.
Performance Below Expectations
Between 15 and 30 September, the refinery’s output was just 26% of the target, with 2,207 trucks loading only 102.97 million litres out of the planned 400 million litres, a shortfall of 297 million litres. This translates to an average shortfall of 18.6 million litres per day, which is 74.3% below the goal.
In early October, from 1 to 5, the refinery managed to load 991 trucks with 45.11 million litres of petrol, instead of the planned 140 million litres, achieving only 32% of its target. The refinery’s performance over these five days resulted in a shortfall of 94.88 million litres.
Supply Breakdown
On 15 September, Dangote Refinery began petrol deliveries, loading 56 trucks with 2.48 million litres for NNPC Retail Ltd. In the following days, the refinery continued to fall below its target, supplying only a fraction of the required volume.
For instance, on 17 September, 98 trucks carried 4.47 million litres, and by 19 September, the supply peaked at 11.69 million litres with 246 trucks loaded. However, by the end of September, the refinery still lagged, loading only 11.36 million litres on 29 September before dropping to 4.64 million litres on the last day of the month.
The trend continued into October. On 1 October, 11.37 million litres were supplied, followed by 10.04 million litres on 2 October. On 5 October, the refinery delivered 7.10 million litres.
Challenges and Future Prospects
To meet its October daily target of 35 million litres, the refinery would need to load at least 500 trucks each day, assuming each truck carries 70,000 litres of petrol. However, September’s data showed the refinery struggled to load 500 trucks per day with 50,000 litres each.
Implications of Shortfalls
Despite the refinery’s shortfall, its impact on the market has been mitigated by reduced demand. The removal of petrol subsidies has led to a significant increase in fuel prices, prompting many Nigerians to reduce their petrol consumption, either by driving less or limiting the use of petrol-powered generators.
However, if the Dangote Refinery’s supply issues persist, the effects could become more pronounced in the coming months.
Background
On 15 September, NNPC Ltd began lifting petrol from the Dangote Refinery, initially serving as the sole off-taker. However, recent changes have opened the market, allowing other marketers to purchase directly from the refinery. This shift marks a new phase in Nigeria’s deregulated petrol market, with fuel prices now determined by market forces instead of government subsidies.
Attempts to reach the Dangote Group for comment on the supply shortfall were unsuccessful, as the company’s Chief Branding and Communications Officer, Anthony Chiejina, declined to respond.
