Nigerians Rejoice as Food Prices Plummet, Leaving Grain Hoarders in Financial Distress
Nigerians are experiencing significant relief as food prices continue to decline sharply, dropping by an estimated 40% between December 2024 and March 2025. However, traders who hoarded grains in anticipation of price hikes are counting their losses.
A Costly Miscalculation
In December 2024, many traders invested heavily in grains, expecting to profit as prices traditionally surged between February and March. However, contrary to expectations, prices have continued to plummet. For instance, the price of a 50kg bag of beans, which ranged between N100,000 and N140,000 in December, has now dropped to between N75,000 and N85,000. Similarly, the cost of rice, which was about N114,000 per 50kg bag, has plunged to N52,000 in some markets.
Other staple foods have witnessed significant price reductions as well:
- Soya beans: From N120,000 to N60,000 per 50kg bag
- Sorghum: From N140,000 to N35,000–N40,000 per 50kg bag
- Millet: From N70,000 to N40,000 per 50kg bag
- Maize: From N120,000 to N45,000 per 50kg bag
- Yam tubers (120 pieces): From N300,000 to N180,000
Traders Express Frustration
Nike Akanni, a trader from Iseyin, Oyo State, lamented her financial loss, stating that she took a loan of N1.5 million to purchase maize in December. Expecting prices to rise by the end of January, she was instead met with a continuous decline.
“In December 2023, we bought maize at N60,000 per bag, and by March, prices surged to N120,000, doubling our investment. But this year, we assumed the same trend would follow, and now maize is selling for less than what we paid,” she said.
Saleh Abu, a trader from Katsina, also expressed frustration, noting that he and many others had exhausted their capital on stocking grains, only to witness a steep decline in prices.
“We don’t understand what is happening. We used all our money to store grain in December, and now we don’t have enough funds to buy new stock,” he lamented.
Similarly, Adamu Musa from Kano State highlighted how food companies that previously purchased grains in bulk are no longer doing so. Even when they show interest, they prefer to buy on credit, which traders are unwilling to accept.
Factors Behind the Price Drop
Several reasons have been attributed to the unexpected decline in food prices. Abu pointed to reduced cash flow in the economy, forcing traders to sell off grains at lower prices to meet financial obligations.
Akanni, on the other hand, linked the price drop to government policies on border openings. She explained that the Nigeria Customs Service has relaxed its enforcement on food imports, reducing the frequent seizure of goods at the borders.
Government Policies and Their Impact
Food inflation had reached a staggering 50% by December 2024, exacerbating the cost-of-living crisis and malnutrition rates. To mitigate this, the federal government implemented measures to increase food availability:
- Waivers on food importation (July 2024) – Encouraging large-scale imports to stabilize supply.
- Reopening of land borders – Allowing food imports from neighboring countries to ease scarcity.
While farmers initially criticized these policies, arguing they could harm local agricultural production, economists projected that increasing food supply would reduce the demand-supply gap, ultimately stabilizing prices.
Economic analyst Ismael Mohammed explained, “The supply chain has been manipulated through importation, leading to greater food availability and price reductions. However, this is not a sustainable solution unless imports continue, which is detrimental to local farmers.”
The Long-Term Solution: Addressing Insecurity and Post-Harvest Losses
Despite the temporary relief brought by food importation, analysts emphasize that the only sustainable way to combat food inflation is by tackling insecurity. The ongoing farmer-herder crisis and banditry have hindered agricultural productivity, preventing farmers from accessing their farmlands.
Suleiman Dikwa, Managing Director of Green Sahara Farms, stressed the importance of addressing post-harvest losses, which account for nearly 40% of wasted agricultural produce.
“The government must focus on reducing food wastage and improving security so that farmers can return to their fields. Without this, any price stability achieved through imports will be short-lived,” Dikwa stated.
As food prices continue to decline, Nigerians welcome the relief, but experts caution that without long-term solutions to insecurity and post-harvest losses, the nation’s food security remains at risk.
